Analysis on PVC Futures Price Trend

PVC futures analysis: On July 2, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract was mainly adjusted in a narrow range, fluctuating at a relatively low level.

The trend continued after the start of the morning session, but as time went on, the futures price began to show an upward trend, with a significant increase in the afternoon and closing at a high level at the end of the session. V2509 contract opening price: 4819, highest price: 4932, lowest price: 4819, spread 113, reduced position 52195 lots, position: 930079 lots, settlement price: 4877, yesterday's settlement: 4839, up 38, daily trading volume: 1119421 lots, deposited funds: 3.21 billion, capital outflow: 105 million.

Comprehensive price list of each region: yuan/ton

PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market rose, and the price adjustment was frequent, and it rose further in the afternoon. From the comparison of valuations: North China rose by 50 yuan/ton, East China rose by 40 yuan/ton, South China rose by 20-50 yuan/ton, Northeast China rose by 20 yuan/ton, Central China rose by 30 yuan/ton, and Southwest China rose by 30-50 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers mostly remained stable, and did not raise their quotations due to the rise in futures. On the contrary, some companies slightly lowered their prices to promote transactions.

The futures market first consolidated and then rose, especially in the afternoon. The spot market quotations in the morning were slightly tentatively raised, but not universal. There were relatively more price adjustments in the afternoon, and the spot trend was upward, but the point price advantage disappeared.

Among them, the basis price in East China was 09 contract (50-150-170), the 09 contract in South China (0-20-50), the 09 contract in the North (350-400-450), and the individual 09 contract in some sources in the Southwest - (410-460-530). High prices have been dampening downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and product companies have begun to wait and see.

PVC market outlook:

Futures: The price of PVC2509 contract fell sharply on Tuesday, and rose on Wednesday to recover the decline. The high point of the price of 4932 returned to the upper pressure range. Today's market reduction is similar to the total increase yesterday. The traces of short-term entry and exit of hot money are relatively obvious. At present, the price of the futures has pressure above and support below, and it is constantly harvested back and forth within the relative range.

The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) is slightly divergent, and the MACD at the daily level continues to show a golden cross trend. In terms of transactions, long positions accounted for 26.2% and short positions accounted for 25.1%. In the short term, the operation of the futures price will still consider the support of the 4800 direction below and the pressure of the 4900-4950 range above.

Spot: On Tuesday and Wednesday, there were completely opposite market conditions. The adjustment of the futures price increased significantly, and the spot market also dropped sharply yesterday. However, the futures price at a low level caused a slight improvement in transactions. Although the prices of both the futures and spot markets rose today, the transactions weakened.

The enthusiasm for inquiries in the spot market declined, and there were still problems in the early stage. In the process of the futures price rising, the increase in the spot price was insufficient, and the futures and spot prices were slightly separated. 

At present, there are no major variables in the supply and demand level. Among them, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide at the cost port of calcium carbide method was slightly reduced by 50 yuan/ton today. In the foreign market, oil prices rose due to signs of increased demand. However, traders were cautious in trading before the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. Overall, in the short term, the spot price of PVC continued to adjust frequently and slightly.

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